Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.130849 2.256166 2.388184 2.538173 2.704534 2.884187 3.093934
2025-04-27 1.976771 2.153645 2.349301 2.583831 2.860118 3.178898 3.580061
2025-05-04 1.877446 2.086364 2.325576 2.623789 2.991603 3.438965 4.038548
2025-05-11 1.773445 1.999034 2.263894 2.603900 3.038342 3.589425 4.367797
2025-05-18 1.690890 1.928351 2.213004 2.587583 3.081074 3.730975 4.694617
2025-05-25 1.618343 1.863623 2.162818 2.564947 3.109055 3.850054 4.999327
2025-06-01 1.555085 1.805827 2.116345 2.541545 3.130807 3.958411 5.297974
2025-06-08 1.509634 1.767343 2.091241 2.543024 3.184418 4.114311 5.689408
2025-06-15 1.478430 1.744892 2.084800 2.567909 3.271148 4.325652 6.203232
2025-06-22 1.426270 1.692587 2.035758 2.529861 3.261789 4.386038 6.462756
2025-06-29 1.376989 1.641902 1.986283 2.487806 3.242382 4.426929 6.690982
2025-07-06 1.327038 1.588407 1.930602 2.433575 3.200068 4.425334 6.836290
2025-07-13 1.306690 1.574157 1.928566 2.457784 3.282278 4.642960 7.465072
2025-07-20 1.293388 1.568696 1.938145 2.499204 3.394510 4.925354 8.299859
2025-07-27 1.279735 1.561992 1.945313 2.536876 3.503052 5.214309 9.233037
2025-08-03 1.249459 1.531213 1.916790 2.518062 3.515193 5.323469 9.761411
2025-08-10 1.222068 1.503484 1.891457 2.502629 3.531506 5.441951 10.349037
2025-08-17 1.194512 1.474626 1.863334 2.481213 3.535509 5.535826 10.898929
2025-08-24 1.168257 1.446799 1.835679 2.459066 3.536386 5.623044 11.459610
2025-08-31 1.150029 1.429750 1.823187 2.460466 3.579382 5.803988 12.381241
2025-09-07 1.138799 1.422250 1.824445 2.484016 3.664399 6.087857 13.782920
2025-09-14 1.112203 1.391969 1.790556 2.448006 3.635257 6.110755 14.256045
2025-09-21 1.085761 1.361301 1.755223 2.408180 3.596448 6.107316 14.633227